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The deepening political instability in Somalia is a culmination of the rivalries, power struggles and personal antagonisms that have been building up in the past year or so.

The strain between President Abdul Yusuf and Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi, which has resulted in the latter's resignation, is unfortunate because it is likely to reverse the little progress achieved so far and make an already very bad situation much worse.

As some observers of Somali politics had predicted, the political alliance that was constructed in Nairobi after more than two years of negotiations would not last long unless the key personalities were completely satisfied that the arrangement was working as intended.

The Transitional Federal Government (TFG), which was agreed to by about 2,000 Somalis from across the country, was meant to usher in a new era, but this was not to be.

The first test of solidarity among the TFG members came in June 2006 when the Union of Islamic Courts, a coalition of 11 different groups, took Mogadishu and established their own rule.

Sections of the Western Press and some Western governments immediately claimed that this was an al-Qaeda-dominated administration. The Union of Islamic Courts may have had radical Islamists, but they were outnumbered by those who were primarily concerned with a functioning government in Mogadishu.

Although their six-month government was not recognised by any African state except the Sudan, it enabled Somalia to enjoy normal life for the first time in 15 years.

The TFG, which was effectively impotent at the time, maintained its unity in the hope that the international community would intervene and re-install it in office.

The TFG's prayers were answered on Christmas Eve of 2006 when Ethiopia, encouraged by the USA, invaded Somalia, defeated the Union of Islamic Courts and handed nominal power to the TFG.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi promised to withdraw his troops within weeks, but they are still there.

Ethiopia's continued occupation of Somalia has prevented the Islamists from re-establishing their rule, but it has also presented a major test for the solidarity of the TFG.

Many Somalis cannot tolerate the Ethiopian presence for any extended period, something which Kenya, the African Union, the United Nations and most diplomats in Nairobi know.

As if anticipating what is happening in Mogadishu now, Kenyan Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju devoted his entire speech at the UN General Assembly on September 26 to insecurity in Somalia. It was an excellent speech in which he cajoled the rest of the world to participate in establishing peace in Somalia.

Said Mr Tuju: "All of us as an international community should appreciate that the Somali phenomenon, with no government in place, is a danger not just to the neighbouring countries, but to the whole world".

To illustrate his claim, Mr Tuju cited various cases of piracy off the Somali coast, which had affected people from different countries.

While it is true that instability in Somalia is a problem for the whole of Africa and the rest of the world, no other country has felt its impact more than Kenya.

Therefore, it is important that at a time like this the Kenya government should take leadership by proposing options for repa

 


 

 

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